Following WWI, the United States experienced a broad economic expansion that was fueled by new technologies and improved production processes. Simple mathematics reduces a credit-worthy company to bankruptcy — for example a company with a market capitalization of $50 million owing $9 million suddenly becomes a bad risk when its total value dives to $10 million thanks to the sudden switch from profit to loss caused by the fall in the price of oil.
Expect a temporary bubble in 2012 driving prices higher than the most recent 12,800 market high, possibly setting a new all time high in what will be an obviously unhealthy, somewhat uneasy irrational 1929-like blowoff, followed by an equally unnatural 2013+ relentless collapse to at or about Dow 1,500 (probably a 5 year+ outlook).
A few factors often associated with a stock market crash are a considerable period of rising stock prices along with too much of economic optimism, a market situation in which price to earnings ratio exceed long-term averages and also extensive use of market debt and leverages by market participants.
Generally speaking, crashes usually occur under the following conditionscitation needed: a prolonged period of rising stock prices and excessive economic optimism, a market where Price to Earnings ratios exceed long-term averages, and extensive use of margin debt and leverage by market participants.
Right now, hundreds of millions of dollars are flowing into VXX – an ETF that makes money when the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index goes up. In other words, these investors are betting that we are going to see a lot more stock market volatility in the weeks and months to come.Tags: american, crash, history, market, quotes, stock